Wednesday 5 May 2010

Election week – the bet I can’t lose

I like the Liberal Democrats. I don’t like all of their policies. Some of them are rubbish. But I like the fact that they care about civil liberties, that they are willing to consider an alternative to Trident and that their immigration policy is not idiotic. From my perspective, the more power they gain on Thursday May 6th, the better.

Which is why I have placed a bet against them. I have bet a relatively modest sum against a ‘hung parliament’ outcome in the election. With a Labour majority, I am £15 richer; with a Tory majority I am £15 richer. With a hung parliament, I am £10 poorer but feel a lot better about the future of the country. It may not be a perfect hedge – my feelings about the future of the country are probably stronger than that*. But at least I will have something to smile and feel smug about on Friday.

*For a ‘perfect hedge’ I would also have to factor in the net present value of the cash flows determined by the future government’s tax policy on my income, which could be an interesting project in its own right

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